The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2015-04-19
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/331vaw/putin_says_russia_will_build_its_own_space/cqgw1qe is context. $25 bet with Snownova. ” on 2015-04-19
• Chri estimated 4% on 2015-04-19
• aoeu estimated 20% on 2015-04-19
• jesselevine estimated 3% on 2015-04-22
• timujin estimated 10% on 2015-04-23
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “Man fusion, now this. But at least you gave a date and definition for your prediction, so the magnitude of your mistake will be clear.” on 2015-05-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 14% on 2016-07-09
• aoeu estimated 1% and said “no idea what I was thinking with 20%” on 2019-01-12
• Baeboo estimated 6% on 2019-01-12