The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010.

Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• dakyne estimated 90% on 2009-12-09
• dakyne changed their prediction from “The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above by December 31, 2010.” on 2009-12-09
• JRMayne estimated 60% and said “Inflationary forces are a-comin’, but 90% looks too high.” on 2010-01-01
• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-07-30
• dakyne said “gold performs better during deflation than inflation in real terms, if not nominal terms. And it soars during hyperinflation.” on 2010-08-11
• gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1375” on 2010-08-23
• dakyne said “@JRMayne and gwern. You guys wanna up your probabilities to 95%?” on 2010-09-19
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-12-30.
• dakyne said “Spot gold ended up above $1400/oz.” on 2011-01-04