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There will be superintelligence by 2033. — Nick Bostrom

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2034-01-01

  • Pablo estimated 20% on 2012-10-06
  • Pablo said “Context: http://www.nickbostrom.com/superintelligence.html” on 2012-10-06
  • Pablo said “Superintelligence is defined as " an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills."” on 2012-10-06
  • Pablo estimated 16% and said “Upon reflection, I’m lowering my estimate slightly.” on 2012-10-06
  • RandomThinker said “Does this include drug enhanced humans or humans with AI implant? Both as the “superintelligence” or the baseline against which superintelligence is compared. ” on 2012-10-06
  • Pablo said “No: the prediction is restricted to AIs.” on 2012-10-06
  • amitpamin estimated 5% on 2012-10-10
  • kilobug estimated 10% on 2012-10-10
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2012-10-13
  • Grognor said “:|” on 2012-10-17
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 85% on 2012-10-18
  • themusicgod1 estimated 55% on 2016-10-10