I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2017-09-07.

• gwern estimated 100% on 2012-09-07
• gwern said “based on http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8172 ; useful for http://www.gwern.net/Nicotine & http://www.gwern – 25 years: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8180” on 2012-09-07
• themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-10-10
• Pablo estimated 98% on 2017-08-15
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2017-09-07.