LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years.
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
- gwern estimated 5% on 2012-09-07
- gwern said “So far so good.” on 2013-10-16
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2017-09-30” and made the prediction on 2013-10-16
- themusicgod1 estimated 45% on 2016-10-10
- Pablo estimated 4% on 2017-09-06
- Baeboo estimated 4% on 2017-09-18
- Somni estimated 2% on 2017-09-20
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2017-09-30.
- lazarus judged this prediction right on 2018-10-01.
- lazarus judged this prediction wrong on 2018-10-01.