I will cease to identify as an atheist after my LSD trip.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2013-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-09-06
• gwern said “MacLean et al 2011 had roughly half the subjects mystical experience, so 50%; conversion reports are fairly rare, so half that seems still too high, so halve that again to ~13% and then give myself some credit for personal honesty, 10%” on 2012-09-06
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-21.
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2013-03-06” and made the prediction on 2013-10-16