My LSD order will arrive within 2 weeks.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-09-20; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-19.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2012-09-05
• gwern made the prediction on 2012-09-05
• gwern said “barely made it” on 2012-09-19
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-19.
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-09-19” and made the prediction on 2013-10-16