No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-08-27
• gwern estimated 70% and said “so I guess this is de facto a bet on the Chinese lunar missions not doing well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program” on 2012-08-28
• RandomThinker said “@gwern interesting. I didn’t know the Chinese had such definite plans. But still they aren’t planning to go until 2025 at the earliest and it’s easy to delay.” on 2012-08-28
• 1337_w0n estimated 0% and said “0.001% I place a high confidence on men already having visited, in 1969.” on 2012-08-28
• gwern said “har har, 1337_w0n.” on 2012-08-28
• RandomThinker changed their prediction from “No human will visit the moon before 2032” on 2012-08-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 60% on 2012-08-28
• Ken estimated 60% on 2012-11-12
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “By 2032 a lunar mission will be possible at less cost than ever before.” on 2016-02-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-03-11
• pranomostro estimated 66% on 2018-12-10
• Baeboo estimated 77% on 2018-12-12
• Baeboo estimated 73% on 2018-12-12
• amadeu estimated 60% on 2019-04-07