Iran's current regime will continue its nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia).

Created by robo45h on 2009-11-13; known on 2010-11-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-11-13.

• robo45h estimated 90% on 2009-11-13
• robo45h changed their prediction from “Iran's current regime will continue it's nuclear program rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia).” on 2009-11-18
• gwern estimated 85% and said “*its” on 2010-07-29
• robo45h changed their prediction from “Iran's current regime will continue it's nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia).” on 2010-09-27
• gwern said “has not been overthrown; can’t find any evidence that nuclear fuel bank proposal was accepted; nor has civilian program been shut down. marking right” on 2010-11-13
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-11-13.