There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2022-07-01

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2012-07-01
• Jayson Virissimo said “This will be withdrawn if one already exists.” on 2012-07-01
• antsan estimated 90% on 2012-07-13
• gwern estimated 50% and said “US market, as in FDA approved?” on 2012-07-14
• Jayson Virissimo said “@gwern, really? 50% probability is your threshold for ‘silly’? http://predictionbook.com/predictions/7423” on 2012-07-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 80% and said “Debian made a big push for medical use-cases 1 version ago now & linux is big in embedded systems/IoT. It’s probably already happening.” on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2018-12-10
• Baeboo estimated 60% on 2018-12-12