At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.

• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-02-24
• JoshuaZ said “Context:” on 2015-02-24
• JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/2whp5r/what_is_something_absolutely_mindblowing_and/covio77?context=3” on 2015-02-24
• RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “That’s only 5 years away. ” on 2015-02-24
• JoshuaZ said “If you think it is that low maybe you should try to get them to make a bet with you also with even more favorable odds? ” on 2015-02-24
• EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2015-02-28
• Chri estimated 2% on 2015-03-03
• Rigulel estimated 2% on 2015-03-07
• quicklystarfish estimated 8% on 2015-03-10
• Unknowns estimated 1% on 2015-03-13
• JoshuaZ said “Expand context for later reference: bet was with demultiplexer for reddit gold. ” on 2015-03-26
• btrettel estimated 5% and said “There’s a strong probability (perhaps 50%) that self-driving car technology that can handle all the corner cases well (rain, etc.) will exist then. I think the legal hurdles will keep this from happening by the given date.” on 2015-04-27
• unexpectedEOF estimated 5% on 2015-08-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% and said “Way too soon. That day is coming fast, but it won’t be 2020.” on 2016-04-14
• elephantower estimated 2% on 2016-07-10
• two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Way too soon.” on 2016-07-11
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-08
• Sgrunterundt estimated 2% and said “I am very optimistic about self-driving cars, but this timeline is just too fast.” on 2019-05-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2019-05-21
• jbeshir estimated 0% on 2020-02-08
• EnergyParade estimated 0% on 2020-02-17
• btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-02-24.