Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications.

Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.

• lweismantel estimated 80% on 2012-04-19
• gwern said “is this >=30%?” on 2012-04-19
• lweismantel changed their prediction from “Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that 30% of them are failed replications.” on 2012-04-19
• lweismantel said “Yes it was meant to be.” on 2012-04-19
• Mathir25 estimated 75% on 2012-04-19
• daenerys estimated 70% on 2012-04-19
• falenas108 estimated 80% on 2012-04-19
• beo_shaffer estimated 80% on 2012-04-19
• Ben Doherty estimated 65% on 2012-04-20
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2012-04-20
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 85% on 2012-04-20
• lavalamp estimated 45% on 2012-04-20
• RobertLumley estimated 70% on 2012-04-23
• Sarokrae estimated 50% on 2012-04-29
• hedges estimated 95% on 2013-03-22
• itaibn estimated 70% on 2013-03-31
• beo_shaffer estimated 90% and said “Nine of the sixteen results that have already been released were failed replications.” on 2013-07-14
• hedges   judged this prediction right on 2015-05-01.
• hedges said “61 out of 100 failed replication. http://www.nature.com/news/first-results-from-psychology-s-largest-reproducibility-test-1.17433” on 2015-05-01