HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01

• gwern estimated 15% on 2012-04-04
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 15% on 2012-04-20
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01