Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.
- TheScholar estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
- DanArmak estimated 1% and said “The only way this’ll happen is if humanity (and any descendants capable of being religious) go extinct before 2030.” on 2009-10-17
- Larks estimated 3% on 2009-10-17
- Robin Z. estimated 0% on 2009-10-17
- trismet estimated 0% on 2009-10-17
- anonym estimated 1% on 2009-10-17
- Jack estimated 0% on 2009-10-18
- Arenamontanus estimated 1% on 2009-10-19
- faws estimated 1% on 2009-10-22
- othercriteria estimated 1% on 2009-11-15
- evtujo judged this prediction wrong on 2009-11-16.
- Jack judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
- Jack judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
- ledflyd estimated 10% and said “If humans are still around, I think that some church will have power… whether this is still Catholicism (doubtful), Islam (maybe) or scientology.” on 2009-11-16
- olimay estimated 10% and said “The destruction of humanity and other subjectively extreme scenarios would trivially fulfill this prediction.” on 2009-11-26
- MrHen estimated 99% on 2010-02-03
- MrHen estimated 1% on 2010-02-03
- TheScholar said “The prediction was made in the confidence that humanity (in some form) will still be around by 2030.” on 2010-02-11
- gwern estimated 1% on 2010-09-16
- TheScholar said “I should have made it two separate predictions (existence and political influence).” on 2010-09-18
- Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2011-05-08
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-05-26
- Malgidus estimated 1% and said “Existential risk only. I think they will diminish, but not by more than 50%.” on 2013-03-27
- Unknowns estimated 0% on 2015-04-27
- themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-04-11
- jesselevine said “Please add scope. Whole world? ” on 2016-04-11
- JoshuaZ said “jesse, I think that was the intended scope. ” on 2016-04-11
- jesselevine estimated 0% and said “Okay then. Humanity will definitely still be around in 2030 in my opinion.. I believe people are a little overly apacolyptic these days ” on 2016-04-11
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 0% on 2016-04-11
- two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Wanted to post 0 but I choose to hedge my bets.” on 2016-04-21
- pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-11-25
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2018-11-26
- telegrafista estimated 0% on 2019-02-14
- deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
- NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16