GJP: #1087 Will Amr Moussa win the next Egyptian presidential election?

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-02-21
• gwern on 2012-02-21
• ElGalambo estimated 20% on 2012-04-15
• ElGalambo estimated 70% on 2012-04-16
• ElGalambo estimated 85% on 2012-05-23
• gwern said “nope. it was Mohammed Moursi; see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amr_Moussa#2012_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_president marking wrong” on 2012-08-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-28.