HP MoR: Harry is Voldemort

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

ahartell estimated 60% on 2012-01-02
Porejide estimated 15% on 2012-01-02
gwern said “yeah, but in what sense? the devil is in the details, whatever it turns out to be will not be simply classifiable – you need to give scenarios and how you would judge them, etc.” on 2012-01-02
ahartell said “If Harry is a backup of Voldemort then I would consider it right. The reason for Harry being “different from the other boys” is that he gained Voldemort’s intelligence or something. ” on 2012-01-03
ahartell said “ I think this was foreshadowed by Harry’s confusion over whether there was “one person you truly were” in his post-Azkaban talk with Quirrell.” on 2012-01-03
Anubhav said “What if he’s just a horcrux like in the vanilla version?” on 2012-01-04
ahartell said “If the Horcrux has no effect on Harry (like how it didn’t in the original) I think the prediction should be judged wrong.” on 2012-01-04
ahartell estimated 30% on 2012-01-04
Anubhav estimated 30% and said “What if his dark side is the fragment of Voldemort’s soul? (Although I doubt EY would write something so obvious, so this is probably just nitpicking.)” on 2012-01-05
ahartell said “That would be a bit cliché, but I wouldn’t count it as a correct prediction. In that case it wouldn’t really be that Harry’s was part voldemort, but that his dark side was like a separate entity. ” on 2012-01-12
ahartell said “*but in that case I wouldn’t count this as a correct prediction (the first sentence of my last comment doesn’t really make sense.)” on 2012-01-12
ahartell changed their prediction from “Harry is Voldemort in MoR.” on 2012-04-07
Anubhav said “NOTE: The “Eliezer wouldn’t write something so obvious” assertion from my last comment is now known to be false.” on 2012-04-10
PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2012-04-19
ahartell changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
gwern judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.