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HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30

  • Harbinger1 estimated 75% on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Conjunction fallacy. Also, date needs to be fixed. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Harbinger1 changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-17” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “death rates are trending down, even for viruses. and new viruses? and current HIV cure is so drastic only one person has managed it” on 2011-11-17
  • kilobug estimated 0% and said “5 new deadlier viruses ? Would require massive biological war… and then I won’t be there to check PB ;)” on 2011-11-19
  • Medea estimated 0% on 2015-10-08
  • themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
  • NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16