The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15

• Harbinger1 estimated 60% on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ said “Do you mean an above air city that happens to be domed, or an underwater domed city, or a domed city on Mars or the Moon? Would any of these count? Also, date needs to be fixed. ” on 2011-11-17
• Harbinger1 changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-17” on 2011-11-17
• Harbinger1 changed the deadline from “on 2039-11-17” and changed their prediction from “The First Domed City will exist before 2040.” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Conjunction fallacy… ” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Harbinger, maybe try to make some sort term predictions or comment on some of the other predictions, wait a few months and then see how accurate your calibration is for the long term. ” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ said “*short term” on 2011-11-17
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 1% on 2011-11-17
• lavalamp estimated 0% and said “conjunctionitis!” on 2011-11-17
• gwern estimated 1% and said “will judge as ‘both WWIII and a domed city will have existed before 2040’” on 2011-11-17
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-29
• PipFoweraker estimated 0% on 2016-01-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-07-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-07-10
• pranomostro estimated 0% on 2018-12-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2023-08-08