There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2045-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-10-31
• JoshuaZ said “There’s been a continual presence doing science since 1999 just from Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Oddyssey. Goes back farther if one counts long aerobraking of MGS. Currently there are 2 ESA satellites, a US sat, and Opportunity on surface. ” on 2011-10-31
• JoshuaZ said “More to come including Curiosity and others. To clarify, this prediction does not apply to the presence of non-functioning objects (we’ve left a lot on and around Mars). ” on 2011-10-31
• gwern estimated 50% and said “mm. only takes one lapse. can’t we expect a dry period in 5-10 years?” on 2011-10-31
• antsan estimated 40% on 2011-11-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 65% on 2011-11-05
• JoshuaZ said “President’s proposed budget gives cuts to Mars funding:http://science.slashdot.org/story/12/02/14/0017235/white-house-wants-devastating-cuts-to-nasas-mars-exploration ” on 2012-02-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 48% on 2012-02-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% on 2012-08-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-08-07
• pranomostro estimated 50% on 2018-12-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2018-12-20