Luke Muehlhauser will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance

Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-10-28
• gwern said “he’s been at it a month using it every other day: http://lesswrong.com/lw/3w3/how_to_beat_procrastination/4q89 I’m not sure when tolerance will kick in, so 1 year. obviously this will be judged on what he says when asked in the future” on 2011-10-28
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% and said “most likely there is an important detail lukeprog is leaving out of that post…just doesn’t seem plausible” on 2011-10-28
• Gedusa estimated 90% and said “What do we mean by “cease”? If he sleeps normally for a week, does this count as true?” on 2011-11-02
• gwern said “Gedusa, I think we’ll give him a little leeway – if he doesn’t use because supply was temporarily interrupted for a month but plans to go back to the same schedule, I think morally the prediction is still wrong” on 2011-11-02
• papermachine estimated 80% and said “Something else is going on here. Just modafinil doesn’t explain this.” on 2012-03-04
• lukeprog said “I stopped using modafinil every week, months ago.” on 2012-09-24
• Jayson Virissimo said “Marking correct per lukeprog’s comment.” on 2012-09-24
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-24.
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-10-28” and changed their prediction from “lukeprog will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance” on 2013-10-04