MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox

Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-10-20
• gwern said “ch77 published 06 September 2011 Knox’s acquittal comes, I am guessing, too late for Eliezer to easily incorporate into the next chapter, although 78 will be >5000 words, could still stick in a ‘congrats’ somewhere” on 2011-10-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-10-31
• gimpf estimated 40% on 2011-11-10
• stephenh estimated 15% on 2011-11-10
• Anubhav estimated 20% and said “The deadline will probably need to be extended.” on 2011-11-13
• chemotaxis101 estimated 30% on 2011-11-15
• gwern said “note that this does not include the author’s note, but the actual chapter itself” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ said “Dates needs to be bumped. ” on 2011-12-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2011-12-01” on 2011-12-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-01
• Grognor estimated 20% on 2012-01-28
• Grognor   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-20.