“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744823 non-trading” on 2011-08-14
• gwern said “the only way syria is getting off the list after recent events is if the government is replaced entirely, in which case I don’t consider myself morally wrong on these predictions…” on 2011-08-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-15
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.