PredictionBook: The Pope will be assassinated.

NancyLebovitz estimated 3% on 2013-11-28

NancyLebovitz said “I saw people claiming the Pope would be killed because of his economic views. I consider this unlikely.I doubt his call to change will make much difference, but I don’t know how to make that into a prediction.” on 2013-11-28

JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-11-28

RandomThinker estimated 4% and said “@Nancy I don’t think that’s impossible. The last “liberal” pope was possibly done in. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_John_Paul_I” on 2013-12-03

gwern estimated 5% on 2013-12-04

PseudonymousUser said “the Pope as of today, or any other future Pope before 2028-11-28 as well?” on 2014-01-02

simplicio estimated 5% on 2014-01-02

fela estimated 11% on 2014-01-04

Nithi estimated 8% on 2014-01-23

Rowan93 estimated 1% on 2014-01-24

hedges estimated 3% on 2014-03-03

procran estimated 1% on 2014-03-08

Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2014-03-09

Ken estimated 0% on 2014-06-11

rebellionkid estimated 5% on 2014-06-12

sweeneyrod estimated 5% on 2014-12-29

moridinamael estimated 3% on 2015-01-07

Pablo estimated 1% and said “Extremely unlikely; excluding speculative allegations, no pope has been assassinated since the Middle Ages, and the mean pope tenure is maybe 5 years.” on 2015-02-10

Pablo said “(I assume the prediction is about the current pope, not all future popes until 2028.)” on 2015-02-10

Unknowns estimated 5% on 2015-03-14

RoryS estimated 1% on 2015-04-18

unexpectedEOF estimated 1% on 2015-08-15

Temeraire estimated 1% on 2016-02-12

equivrel estimated 8% on 2016-02-14

artir estimated 1% on 2016-03-13

themusicgod1 estimated 4% and said “10/154 popes possibly murdered, 3/154 confirmed. ” on 2016-03-14

splorridge estimated 1% on 2016-03-14

PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2016-03-14

PlacidPlatypus said “Assuming we’re just talking about Francis I.” on 2016-03-14

pranomostro estimated 3% and said “Given that 10 popes have been killed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_murdered_popes#Murdered_popes) and there have been 266 popes up to date, this is my estimate.” on 2018-12-08

Baeboo estimated 2% on 2018-12-12

deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26

PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2020-06-17

Medea estimated 3% on 2020-09-11

JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Still around 1%, but if two more years go by, update to 0.4% which rounds to 0% given age. ” on 2020-09-11

Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-09-12

hampuslj estimated 1% on 2021-02-20

n99 estimated 2% on 2022-10-28

Reinersaltaccount estimated 1% on 2023-01-07