HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story

Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2013-10-28
• ChristianKl estimated 65% on 2013-10-29
• tedks estimated 1% on 2013-10-29
• rejuvyesh estimated 10% on 2013-11-07
• a0c4a123f7 said “So, anything recursive and self-improving with an intelligence?” on 2013-11-10
• Samm estimated 3% on 2013-11-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2013-11-16
• Vulture estimated 5% on 2014-01-21
• raisin estimated 15% and said “.” on 2014-04-07
• raisin estimated 5% on 2014-05-03
• etarletons estimated 2% and said “http://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/23uw0h/why_hasnt_harry_sparked_the_singularity_yet/ch0x2zh” on 2014-05-03
• Calien estimated 1% on 2014-09-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2015-01-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• Vulture estimated 1% on 2015-02-23
• tedks   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-05-01.