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SR: <30 related arrests within a year.

Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2014-10-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-01.

  • gwern estimated 80% on 2013-10-08
  • gwern said “context: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6518399” on 2013-10-08
  • gwern said “current known busts: digitalink, UndergroundSyndicate, Supertrips, MDPro (2), Howell (2), Hammertime (4), Inigo, BtcKing (2), XanaxKing (9+5), Caligirl = 29; very close but not 30” on 2014-10-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2014-10-01.