Will the mean forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1613.62 days?

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01

• niplav estimated 60% on 2022-10-02
• niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-10-02