Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-10-03.

• niplav estimated 55% on 2022-09-30
• niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
• niplav said “No, the actual value being ≈4.1781.” on 2022-10-03
• niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-03.