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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?

#metaculus

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-03.

  • niplav estimated 45% on 2022-09-30
  • niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” on 2022-09-30
  • niplav said “No, the actual value is ≈-5.02466e-04.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
  • niplav said “Aargh, no, retract. Too many similar questions.” on 2022-10-02
  • niplav said “Correction: Yes. The correlation is 0.01923947.” on 2022-10-03
  • niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-03.