Will the Brier score on all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts be greater than or equal to 0.17085?

Created by niplav on 2022-09-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-10-02.

• niplav estimated 10% on 2022-09-27
• niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data.” on 2022-09-27
• niplav said “Accuracy between forecasts.” on 2022-09-27
• Baeboo said “#metaculus” on 2022-09-27
• Baeboo estimated 22% on 2022-09-27
• niplav said “Brier score is 0.17011375312003707, resolves negativey.” on 2022-10-02
• niplav   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.
• niplav said “After removing forecasts with negative ranges, the Brier score is actually 0.1713050461310057, so this resolves positively.” on 2022-10-02
• niplav   judged this prediction right on 2022-10-02.
• niplav said “Correction: Yes, with the Brier score being ≈0.17245” on 2022-10-03