Out of the 4 or 5 people who cheated in the exam, no-one will confess

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-22; known on 2021-12-27; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-12-28.

• sty.silver estimated 20% on 2021-12-22
• sty.silver said “Context: I had this exam in my class, 4 solutions are almost identical and one is close; I asked everyone per mail to confess their sins (doing so will avoid consequences other than receiving zero points)” on 2021-12-22
• sty.silver   judged this prediction right on 2021-12-28.
• sty.silver said “Guess they thought they could get away with it. Maybe that I wouldn’t ask if I had proof. If so they really don’t understand combinatorics” on 2021-12-28