X-Risk, Nuclear – Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, conditioonal on there being an offensive detonation anywhere?

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2050-01-01

• jbeshir estimated 25% on 2021-07-11
• jbeshir said “Resolves per https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/” on 2021-07-11