North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war

Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.

• limbo estimated 16% on 2020-09-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Conjunction fallacy. ” on 2020-09-02
• wizzwizz4 estimated 1% on 2020-09-02
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% and said “Why 2022 specifically?” on 2020-09-02
• Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “China would veto any UNSC resolution and nuke the hell out of whomever invaded without one.” on 2020-09-13
• chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on 2020-09-13
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-09-15
• Bruno Parga said “If this happens before 2022 will this be judged true or false?” on 2020-09-24
• limbo said “false, @Bruno Parga” on 2020-10-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Updating based on clarification that it needs to be exactly in 2022. ” on 2020-10-05
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2020-10-06
• arrowinthedark estimated 0% on 2022-08-04
• Dilip estimated 0% on 2022-08-06
• Dilip estimated 0% on 2022-08-06
• limbo   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-08-13.