[Regardless of who is president] There will be riots and/or civil unrest in the US, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots in the next four years.

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged unknown by gwern on 2020-09-05.

• Ragnarok_Reverted estimated 43% on 2020-08-30
• NickN estimated 60% on 2020-08-30
• product estimated 70% on 2020-09-01
• najdorf estimated 80% on 2020-09-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2020-09-04
• two2thehead said “Two problems I can see. How this is judged is not stated and the known on date is way too early. I hate to start off with a criticism but…” on 2020-09-04
• anandjeyahar estimated 65% on 2020-09-05
• anandjeyahar   judged this prediction right on 2020-09-05.
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2020-09-05.