[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000

Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-03-20.

• nortriptyline2 estimated 70% on 2020-01-22
• nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-31” on 2020-01-23
• nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-31” on 2020-01-23
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-01-23
• Bruno Parga estimated 10% on 2020-01-23
• peter_hurford estimated 1% and said “2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >10K.” on 2020-01-23
• nortriptyline2 changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-01” on 2020-01-23
• nortriptyline2 estimated 10% on 2020-01-23
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2020-01-23
• peter_hurford estimated 5% and said “Sadly based on recent reporting, this is now looking somewhat plausible” on 2020-01-25
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2020-01-25
• nortriptyline2 estimated 50% on 2020-01-26
• Bruno Parga estimated 94% and said “Updating based on https://cutt.ly/9rRIWJe” on 2020-01-27
• Baeboo estimated 7% on 2020-01-27
• Baeboo estimated 9% on 2020-01-27
• batemancapital estimated 10% on 2020-01-31
• WilliamKiely estimated 10% and said “I bet $100 at even odds that this will resolve negative.” on 2020-02-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2020-02-04
• PseudonymousUser said “The truth is, I don’t think this is going to happen, but I can’t convince myself why it won’t.” on 2020-02-04
• WilliamKiely estimated 30% and said “I’ve grown more uncertain, meta-updating toward Metaculus” on 2020-02-04
• Baeboo estimated 45% on 2020-02-05
• Baeboo estimated 56% on 2020-02-05
• WilliamKiely estimated 60% and said “My new median estimate is about 16,000 deaths” on 2020-02-05
• WilliamKiely estimated 70% on 2020-02-06
• Bruno Parga estimated 60% on 2020-02-07
• Baeboo estimated 68% on 2020-02-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2020-02-10
• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2020-02-10
• pranomostro estimated 75% and said “https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-before-2021/” on 2020-02-10
• Andrew MacFie estimated 25% on 2020-02-11
• Baeboo estimated 80% on 2020-02-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2020-02-12
• Baeboo estimated 89% on 2020-02-12
• Medea estimated 65% on 2020-02-13
• Baeboo estimated 77% on 2020-02-13
• EnergyParade estimated 30% on 2020-02-13
• Baeboo estimated 85% on 2020-02-21
• avi estimated 90% on 2020-02-22
• Baeboo estimated 94% on 2020-02-23
• stepan estimated 100% on 2020-02-24
• Baeboo estimated 95% on 2020-02-25
• Andrew MacFie estimated 75% on 2020-02-26
• EnergyParade estimated 80% and said “Things are getting worse instead of better.” on 2020-03-01
• sjy estimated 90% on 2020-03-02
• Baeboo estimated 96% on 2020-03-02
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2020-03-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2020-03-03
• Baeboo estimated 99% on 2020-03-05
• Baeboo estimated 100% on 2020-03-06
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2020-03-20.