A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.

• peter_hurford estimated 10% on 2020-01-14
• pranomostro estimated 20% and said “This seems to have happened 2 times in the last 10 elections, and 4 times in the last 20: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PartyVotes-Presidents.png” on 2020-01-17
• pranomostro said “Eyeballing, of course.” on 2020-01-17
• Bruno Parga estimated 4% on 2020-01-26
• HonoreDB estimated 8% on 2020-02-24
• NickN estimated 30% on 2020-08-16
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2020-08-31
• Baeboo estimated 9% on 2020-08-31
• product estimated 1% on 2020-09-01
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% and said “In 2016, with two of the least popular candidates in history, no third party even hit 4%” on 2020-09-01
• PlacidPlatypus said “@pranomostro we have a lot more to go on than just the base rate. In 1992 Perot didn’t just show up out of nowhere on election day- he ran a major campaign and in fact did better in earlier polls than in the final results.” on 2020-09-01
• PlacidPlatypus said “If there was anything like that this year we would know by now.” on 2020-09-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2020-09-01
• TracyPoff estimated 5% on 2020-09-02
• peter_hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-07.
• PlacidPlatypus said “Having trouble finding hard numbers here but everything I do see points to Jorgensen having well under 2% so I’m going to call it.” on 2020-11-07