If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election.
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
- jprettner estimated 70% on 2019-06-28
- PseudonymousUser estimated 83% on 2019-06-29
- pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-06-29
- Dapple estimated 30% and said “Too bad that more than likely this prediction is headed into null territory. Would be fun.” on 2019-06-30
- chemotaxis101 estimated 55% on 2019-06-30
- WilliamKiely estimated 45% and said “The outcome will not be “known in 28 days” like this says. Needs updating.” on 2019-07-04
- stepan estimated 52% on 2019-07-09
- Pablo estimated 45% on 2019-07-25
- Jackzilla estimated 10% and said “Little evidence to suggest this based on both the 2016 and 18 election, therefore this seems like a measure of faith in Trump’s ability as a campaigner to change things in the next ~18 months.” on 2019-07-26
- jesselevine estimated 12% on 2019-08-01
- moyamo estimated 40% on 2019-08-08
- Bruno Parga estimated 30% on 2019-08-23
- Baeboo estimated 40% on 2019-09-07
- credunkist estimated 65% on 2019-09-17
- pranomostro estimated 20% and said “I don’t know why my number was so high: ~40% of Biden winning democratic bid, ~50% for Trump winning election.” on 2019-10-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 68% on 2019-12-19
- elephantower estimated 30% and said “interpreting this as P(trump wins general | biden wins nomination) ” on 2020-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 46% on 2020-01-01
- PseudonymousUser said “That deadline tho” on 2020-01-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2020-01-22
- stepan estimated 100% on 2020-02-24
- AlexLamson estimated 70% on 2020-03-02
- Baeboo estimated 57% on 2020-03-03
- Baeboo estimated 47% on 2020-03-21
- stepan estimated 45% on 2020-03-29
- jgvergo estimated 80% on 2020-04-23
- unexpectedEOF estimated 72% on 2020-08-19
- NickN estimated 80% on 2020-08-19
- Bruno Parga estimated 12% and said “Just copying 538 here.” on 2020-10-18
- qznc estimated 15% on 2020-10-18
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-08.