'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-10-29
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm#longevity” on 2010-10-29
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2025-01-01” and changed their prediction from “'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2024” on 2010-10-29
• anonym estimated 80% on 2010-11-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 80% on 2011-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 62% and said “Less confident. Difficulties with serious life extension to mice, and they would need to have the basics down by 2015 for the mice to have a chance to live long enough. This would be approximately doubling the current best maximum. ” on 2011-11-17
• Malgidus estimated 60% and said “Accidents, non-University research facilities. In the time this mouse is born by 2015, it may be possible.” on 2013-03-27
• gwern estimated 10% and said “last m-prize award, 2009 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2786175/ , max ~1200 day or ~3.3 years, winner must be born soon and have triple current max…? no longer feasible, IMO. very disappointing.” on 2014-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Unfortunately agree with your assessment. ” on 2014-10-06
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-08
• pranomostro estimated 7% on 2019-01-08