Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01

• RandomThinker estimated 1% on 2013-05-21
• RandomThinker said “Err, I think he just can’t tell Japanese names apart! http://qz.com/86255/the-mysterious-creator-of-bitcoin-could-be-japanese-mathematician-shinichi-mochizuki-says-the-inventor-of-hypertext/” on 2013-05-21
• RandomThinker changed their prediction from “Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the Real Satoshi Nakamoto” on 2013-05-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “This seems extremely unlikely. ” on 2013-05-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-05-21
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-05-22
• gwern estimated 2% and said “just consider the base rates here… how many brilliant Japanese men are there in a population of 128m?” on 2013-05-22
• RandomThinker said “@gwern Nakamoto isn’t even really Japanese, plus Japan is full of brilliant people. 1% of 100m is 1m.” on 2013-05-22
• gwern estimated 0% on 2014-09-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-04-15
• pranomostro estimated 0% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2018-12-12
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26