HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione.

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

• DrDiaphanous estimated 10% on 2013-05-10
• DrDiaphanous changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and changed their prediction from “In HPMOR, Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione.” on 2013-06-10
• gwern estimated 5% on 2013-06-10
• ygert estimated 4% on 2013-06-10
• ShIxtan estimated 10% on 2013-06-30
• nigr estimated 5% on 2013-08-15
• player_03 estimated 10% and said “I don’t trust reasoning based on motives, and I can think of a semi-plausible motive, but Lucius wasn’t in a good position to pull it off.” on 2014-04-26
• qznc estimated 20% on 2014-07-14
• DrDiaphanous   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-02-19.