Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative.

Created by JohnWittle on 2016-02-17; known on 2025-06-01

• JohnWittle estimated 80% on 2016-02-17
• JohnWittle changed the deadline from “on 2025-06-01” and changed their prediction from “Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative, by 2” on 2016-02-17
• appleseed estimated 20% on 2016-02-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2016-02-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 38% on 2016-02-18
• aarongertler estimated 27% and said “Approximate increase in costs now seems to be about 5% per year, but people have been getting angrier about that, and I don’t think the rate will be higher (on average) over the next ten years. Others seem unlikely as well.” on 2016-02-19
• NickN estimated 50% on 2020-08-19