“In 2022 more than 60% of US engineering undergraduate seniors will have tried a legal brain enhancing supplemental substance.” (Kevin Fischer XFF 2012) [excluding Caffeine]

Created by dusk on 2013-03-05; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-12.

dusk estimated 50% on 2013-03-05
Tuxedage said “I think that this is already the case (Caffeine).” on 2013-03-05
gwern said “need better definitions. if it includes caffeine, it is indeed trivially true.” on 2013-03-05
Qiaochu said “How do you get accurate data on this? ” on 2013-03-13
dusk said “I quoted the prediction as it was said, in the context of a presentation on dietary supplements. Please exclude the use of caffeine when evaluating this prediction. ” on 2013-03-26
Jayson Virissimo said “There are plenty of ingredients in common energy drinks that are brain enhancing supplemental substances. Like gwern said, this is already trivially true.” on 2013-03-27
themusicgod1 said “this definitely includes caffeine as written” on 2016-10-10
themusicgod1 said “and if we’re just excluding caffeine, then caffeine derivatives(ie energy drinks) ” on 2016-10-10
PseudonymousUser said “Unfortunately, 2022 did not happen by the specified deadline.” on 2020-07-12
PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2020-07-12.
JoshuaZ said “That’s a reason to bump the deadline, not a reason to mark this wrong. ” on 2020-07-12
Baeboo judged this prediction unknown on 2020-07-12.
PseudonymousUser said “It helps to read my comment with a deadpan voice. ” on 2020-07-14
PseudonymousUser said “I’ve created some additional busywork for you guys, in case this is really the hill you want to die on. ” on 2020-07-14
Baeboo judged this prediction right on 2020-07-15.
Baeboo judged this prediction unknown on 2020-07-15.
dusk changed the deadline from “on 2020-06-30” and changed their prediction from ““In 2022 more than 60% of US engineering undergraduate seniors will have tried a legal brain enhancing supplemental substance.” (Kevin Fischer XFF 2012)” on 2020-12-25