“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01

• gwern estimated 90% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/16” on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “I think I could hack this up with existing technology. Another 10 years, with falling Flash technology and expanding smartphone usage? inevitable” on 2010-07-30
• gwern estimated 96% and said “Actually, I think I’d better increase my confidence.” on 2010-07-30
• Grognor estimated 78% on 2011-12-06
• lavalamp estimated 95% on 2013-02-02
• drethelin estimated 85% and said “I think it’s basically guaranteed this will be possible by then but plenty of market niches don’t necessarily get built.” on 2013-02-02
• HonoreDB estimated 98% on 2013-02-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 88% on 2013-02-05
• Tuxedage estimated 90% on 2013-02-06
• themusicgod1 said “memory by you or the NSA?” on 2016-10-06
• pranomostro estimated 70% and said “I don’t know if such a device is available at the moment. A quick internet search reveals nothing of the sort.” on 2019-01-14
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-14
• HonoreDB said “I’m going to tentatively assert that Apple Watch counts as this because of apps like otter.ai ” on 2019-05-21
• gwern said “Hm.. what do people think? Smartphones and NN TTS certainly are capable of this if appropriately programmed, but do they actually exist as usable consumer products now?” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “I think “one could hack it” is not quite the same as “available”, so I think this is wrong. Also, the main obstacle is probably not even the technology, but privacy concerns.” on 2020-01-01