By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01

• gwern estimated 80% on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “Base this on the general difficulty of any popular amendment, and the demonstrated difficulty of ever ratifying amendments. The last was 1992! And bureaucratic” on 2010-07-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 50% on 2011-05-24
• Grognor estimated 70% on 2011-12-06
• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2019-01-15
• Baeboo estimated 80% on 2019-01-16
• deleteyourbrain estimated 50% on 2019-04-26