By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC, ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-07; known on 2056-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2015-09-07
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2056-01-01” and changed their prediction from “By January 1, 2056, Proven that under the assumptions that PH doesn't collapse to any finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, unique games conjecture is true, that ETH is true, that GI is not in BQP, that factoring is not in P, NC != P, proven th” on 2015-09-07
• JoshuaZ said “This is that the statement in the last line will be proven to follow from the (long list) of assumptions. Of course, if any of those premises are proven to be false or contradictory then this trivially becomes true. Also, ZPP=P would do the same. ” on 2015-09-07
• JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/99986 and http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3088” on 2015-09-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 98% on 2016-01-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 10% and said “and and and and” on 2016-04-24
• JoshuaZ said “themusicgod1, yes, but you need to look at how the quantifiers are ordered. For example proving any of the assumption list statements false would result in the statement being trivially true. ” on 2016-04-24