Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

• InquilineKea estimated 50% on 2015-07-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-07-20
• JoshuaZ said “Seem strange. Less resources and less ability for aerobreaking. Only advantage is that lower down in the gravity well so easier to leave, but that’s balanced by not being able to make more fuel. And the destination is less interesting. ” on 2015-07-20
• RandomThinker estimated 20% and said “With Joshua. Cost of leaving is pretty low down on the list of requirements.” on 2015-07-20
• David estimated 5% on 2015-07-28
• espore estimated 5% on 2015-08-02
• espore   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-08-02.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-03.
• Medea estimated 10% on 2015-12-01
• pranomostro estimated 7% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 7% on 2018-12-12