By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area.

Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01

• RoryS estimated 50% on 2015-07-19
• RoryS said “Suggestion comes from this paper by Jim Everett and Brian Earp http://www.jimaceverett.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/153589_Everett_Manuscript.pdf” on 2015-07-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-07-20
• btrettel estimated 15% and said “Would be nice, but I think this is unlikely.” on 2015-07-20
• EloiseRosen estimated 8% on 2015-07-27
• EloiseRosen said “Your link doesn’t work. Also, I think you probably mean replication attempt.” on 2015-07-27
• RoryS changed the deadline from “on 2025-12-31” and changed their prediction from “By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication of a major finding in their research area.” on 2015-07-28
• RoryS estimated 35% and said “Right on both accounts. Changed title, and link to the paper is here. Jim must’ve taken the manuscript down. Also appears I was overconfident to begin with. http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01152/full” on 2015-07-28