If M is any irreducible stationary Markov chain on the set of computable permutations of the natural numbers, then M is transient.

Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.

• orthonormal estimated 99% on 2015-05-30
• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 80% on 2015-05-31
• orthonormal said “I, um, forgot to say that M had to have stationary transition probabilities. That kind of makes the difference between true and false. What should I do with this prediction?” on 2015-05-31
• KnaveOfAllTrades said “It sounds like in the spirit of the prediction you meant to make, you were correct. But in the spirit of the prediction I made (IIRC I decided in advance I’d be wrong even if you omitted or misstated the hypotheses), I was incorrect.” on 2015-05-31
• KnaveOfAllTrades said “So maybe leave this unmarked and we each make a new prediction? I’ll leave it up to you ultimately.” on 2015-05-31
• orthonormal changed the deadline from “on 2015-06-01” and changed their prediction from “If M is any irreducible Markov chain on the set of computable permutations of the natural numbers, then a random walk on M is transient.” on 2015-06-01
• orthonormal said “https://www.sharelatex.com/project/556b88fe8846fa14743bab0e/output/output.pdf” on 2015-06-01
• orthonormal said “KnaveOfAllTrades, you can make a separate retrodiction of the general case and mark it accordingly.” on 2015-06-01
• orthonormal   judged this prediction right on 2015-06-01.