Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013.

Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• ChristianKl estimated 20% on 2012-11-29
• RusAnon estimated 5% on 2012-11-30
• lavalamp estimated 70% and said “Seems like a fairly safe bet if we extrapolate from 2012.” on 2012-12-11
• lavalamp said “Wait, I just realized that the judgement date is set for the end of January, not the end of the year. Which is intended? This would change my prediction quite a bit.” on 2012-12-12
• Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-01-05
• roxton estimated 35% and said “The technology seems somewhat likely to gain at least one huge partner this year. But that would fundamentally reanchor the currency rather than simply deflate it, and I haven’t done the back-of-envelope calculations to predict the direction.” on 2013-01-11
• lavalamp said “It’s trading at 18.5 right now. I’m going to be very amused if I end up being correct in spite of not paying sufficient attention to the judgement date.” on 2013-01-24
• lavalamp said “BTC traded above $20 just in time for the “known by” date and is still above $20 3 hours latr. Either this should be judged “right” or the known by date should be changed to reflect the statement in the prediction.” on 2013-01-31
• ChristianKl changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-31” on 2013-01-31
• gwern estimated 65% and said “fixed date; my judgment will be mtgox daily average for 31 December 2013” on 2013-01-31
• ygert   judged this prediction right on 2013-12-31.