Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01

• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2012-11-28
• RandomThinker said “The feds just went after them. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/after-regulator y-sanction-intrade-closes-to-u-s-investors/?hp” on 2012-11-28
• RandomThinker said “Not counting Iowa political market, which has a special exemption from a long time ago.” on 2012-11-28
• Qiaochu estimated 30% on 2012-11-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-10