What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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'President Mike Pence' ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 11 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 12 days ago; known on 2017-01-15.
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Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead 11 days ago; known on 2066-10-10.
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Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 1% confidence )
Created by Dapple 7 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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Julian Assange died before this prediction was made ( 2% confidence )
Created by bobpage 4 days ago; known on 2017-01-01.